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NIST, the NSA, Britain's NCSC, the EU, Canada, and Australia all ask organizations to start post-quantum migration now. None claims a code-breaking quantum computer exists or gives it a known date. Their deadlines do not depend on either claim.
The cabinet expects a quantum computer able to break public-key encryption between 2029 and 2035. Ministries are to fund the migration from existing budgets at first. The cabinet will adjust its ambitions if it cannot find the money.
Absolute promises, theorems without their conditions, quantum in a product's name, and post-quantum labels without an algorithm or certificate recur in security pitches. Each can be checked against a public standard, certificate, agency assessment, or proof.
In PNAS, Oxford's Tim Palmer proposed that quantum computers lose their advantage above about 1,000 perfect qubits. He wrote that his theory and standard quantum mechanics agree on small systems. No experiment has yet tested where they differ.
