Quantum Observer #2 - Quantum Crowned, Quantum Challenged
From the Nobel Prize to new breakthroughs, business momentum, and policy shifts - the quantum world accelerates on every front.
In this edition: A Nobel Prize that honors the roots of today’s qubits, a spirited debate on HSBC & IBM’s quantum experiment, major business moves from Rigetti and Pasqal, new breakthroughs from labs that are literally heating up quantum computing, global policies accelerating readiness, and a new recurring section - Quantum Flapdoodle of the Week - to keep your baloney detector sharp.
If last month felt like quantum tech was sprinting, the past two weeks made it clear we’ve hit another gear. The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics crowned the pioneers who turned quantum circuits into artificial atoms - the foundation of modern superconducting qubits.
At the same time, quantum business headlines multiplied, governments rolled out fresh readiness initiatives, and researchers dropped results that make the path to large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum systems look a bit shorter - and hotter.
Even the hype machine joined the action, from media overreacting to the HSBC-IBM experiment to the wild world of “quantum medbeds.”
Amid all this noise, one signal stands out: quantum has left the theoretical stage. It’s now an industry, a policy agenda, and - thanks to The Quantum Minute - apparently an award-winning podcast, too.
Nobel Prize in Physics 2025 goes to quantum (and the roots of today’s qubits)
TL;DR: The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics went to the pioneers who proved that quantum effects can exist in macroscopic circuits - a discovery that paved the way for today’s superconducting qubits and the modern quantum computer.
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the 2025 Physics Nobel to John Clarke, Michel H. Devoret, and John M. Martinis “for the discovery of macroscopic quantum mechanical tunnelling and energy quantisation in an electric circuit.” In the 1980s-90s, their Josephson-junction and superconducting-circuit experiments showed that circuits you can hold in your hand behave like artificial atoms - tunnelling between quantized energy states - establishing the platform that later became today’s superconducting qubits (e.g., transmons) and readout methods. In short: they proved quantum weirdness scales up, and that insight underpins much of modern quantum computing, sensing, and measurement.
I wrote a brief reaction here: Quantum Tunnelling on a Chip: Why the 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics Matters for Quantum Tech. I also predicted this would be a “quantum year” - but didn’t guess the exact laureates - here: Predicting Quantum Computing Winning 2025 Nobel Physics Prize?
For background on the winners and their impact, see the Nobel press material and roundups.
A Different Take on the HSBC–IBM Experiment
TL;DR: HSBC and IBM’s bond-pricing experiment showed a surprising 34% boost from quantum noise - intriguing, but not “quantum advantage.” Scott Aaronson’s critique is a sharp reality-check against hype.
In the last newsletter I covered HSBC and IBM’s quantum finance experiment, where their team observed a 34% improvement in bond-pricing predictions using a hybrid quantum-classical model. As I noted then, neither HSBC nor IBM ever claimed “quantum advantage.” They simply ran a thoughtful experiment and, somewhat mysteriously, found that quantum noise seemed to help the model generalize better. I found that fascinating - not proof of advantage, but a hint of new physics-inspired behavior worth studying. If it sparks more research and investment in quantum finance, all the better.
Scott Aaronson, however, offered a sharply different view in his recent blog post. He argues that media headlines stretched a modest result into hype and that we should resist celebrating “advantage” claims until the mechanisms, and reproducibility, are rigorously proven. His perspective matters because Aaronson has long served as the field’s most credible reality-check between genuine progress and marketing spin. So you should check it out.
In truth, both views can coexist: experiments like HSBC-IBM’s show how curiosity and commercial exploration drive discovery, while voices like Aaronson’s remind us to keep the science disciplined. Quantum needs both the explorers and the skeptics - they’re what keep the field honest and moving forward.
The Business of Quantum: Commercial Signals Strengthen Across Finance and Industry
The quantum computing industry saw key signs of maturation over the past two weeks, from large sales to mainstream finance experiments. Rigetti Computing, for instance, announced $5.7 million in purchase orders for two on-premise quantum systems (9-qubit Novera processors) – a milestone that shifts quantum access from the cloud to the hands of more researchers.
In finance, quantum is increasingly on the agenda: at the Sibos 2025 banking conference, experts highlighted quantum’s emerging use cases in asset management and fraud detection while urging preparation for future encryption-breaking threats. Around the same time, IBM and Vanguard revealed a successful test of a 109-qubit quantum-classical workflow for portfolio optimization, hinting that hybrid quantum algorithms could accelerate complex financial computations in the near future.
Investors have taken note of these advances – quantum computing stocks have surged in recent weeks as breakthroughs move the tech “out of the lab and into the real world,” sparking bullish sentiment.
And in a transatlantic expansion, French startup Pasqal is investing $65 million to establish its first U.S. headquarters in Chicago, building a neutral-atom quantum computer at the new Illinois Quantum & Microelectronics Park and creating at least 50 jobs. Illinois’ governor hailed Pasqal’s move as “another major step forward” in the state’s quest to become a leading U.S. quantum hub.
All these developments signal that quantum computing’s momentum in the business world is stronger than ever.
Quantum Tech Breakthroughs: Scaling Faster, Running Hotter, Thinking Smarter
“Above 1 K Qubits” – 100× Higher Temperature Quantum Operation
TL;DR: EeroQ’s new electron-on-helium qubits work at 1.1 K - 100× hotter than typical superconducting qubits. By easing the extreme-cooling bottleneck, this breakthrough could make large-scale quantum computers far more practical - and potentially accelerate the road to Q-Day.
Quantum startup EeroQ has smashed the milli-Kelvin barrier in a new hardware breakthrough. In a paper published in Physical Review X, EeroQ’s team showed they can trap and control individual electron-based qubits on superfluid helium at 1.1 kelvin. That’s more than 100× hotter than the ~10 millikelvin temperatures at which superconducting qubits typically operate. Using on-chip microwave circuits, they detected single electrons dancing on a helium film, loading and moving them one by one while maintaining quantum coherence. This validates a long-standing theory: electrons on helium can serve as stable, long-lived qubits even at elevated temps. As EeroQ’s co-founder Johannes Pollanen put it, this “reduces a key barrier to scalable quantum computing” by showing qubits that work in a far less cryogenic environment.
Why it matters: Cooling is one of the toughest engineering challenges in quantum computing. Today’s quantum processors sit in expensive dilution refrigerators colder than outer space, and heat dissipation is a major limit on scaling up. EeroQ’s result suggests we can build qubits that run at 1 K or above, where cooling power is orders of magnitude higher and refrigeration is much easier. In practical terms, this could let quantum computers pack in many more qubits and even integrate some control electronics inside the fridge without overheating. By easing the cryogenic bottleneck, high-temperature electron-on-helium qubits might pave the way for larger, more practical quantum machines that don’t require a football-field of cooling infrastructure.
Q-Day impact: Potentially huge. A cryptographically relevant quantum computer (able to break RSA/ECC) will likely require millions of physical qubits – which is nearly impossible with today’s ultra-cold, delicate setups. If qubits can operate reliably at around 1 kelvin, scaling to massive qubit counts becomes much more feasible. That means the timeline to a true crypto-breaking quantum computer could speed up, since one key hurdle (extreme cooling requirements) might be overcome sooner than expected. In short, this “hot qubit” breakthrough brings the prospect of an at-scale quantum computer closer to reality, increasing urgency to move to quantum-safe encryption before Q-Day arrives.
My analysis: Above 1K Qubits
Original paper: Sensing and Control of Single Trapped Electrons above 1 K
“Quantum Lattice Attack Speedup” - SVP Exponent Shaved (~0.309→0.285)
TL;DR: Dutch researchers cut the quantum attack time on lattice cryptography’s core problem (SVP) from an exponent of 0.309 to 0.285 - an ~8% drop that translates to ~30–60 million x faster theoretical cracking for large lattices. PQC remains safe for now, but a reminder that smarter algorithms, not just bigger quantum machines, could still nudge Q-Day closer.
A team of researchers in the Netherlands has found a significant cryptanalytic improvement against lattice-based encryption – the class of schemes underpinning leading post-quantum algorithms like Kyber and Dilithium. The security of those schemes relies on the hardness of the Shortest Vector Problem (SVP) on high-dimensional lattices.
The best-known attacks use a technique called lattice sieving, which runs in exponential time 2c·d (c a constant, d = dimension). The new research accelerates the quantum version of 3‑tuple sieving by reducing its time constant from 0.3098 to 0.2846 (an ~8% drop). In concrete terms, for a large lattice of dimension 1000, that’s like cutting the attack time exponent from 309.8 to 284.6 - a massive speedup (on the order of 225–226 ≈ 30–60 million times faster for d=1000!).
They achieved this by using a two-level quantum amplitude amplification strategy focused on local “center points” in the lattice, which guides the search more efficiently. The trade-off is a memory cost of about 20.1887·d bits (QRAM) for the algorithm. Overall, this gives the fastest known quantum attack on SVP for a wide range of practical memory limits.
Why it matters: Any improvement in attacking the underlying hard problems of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is big news. This result doesn’t break lattice cryptography outright – the runtime is still exponential – but it significantly lowers the bar for a quantum cryptanalyst. In essence, lattice-based schemes might need larger dimensions (and keys) to maintain the same security margin, because quantum attackers just got a theoretical speed boost. It’s also a striking reminder that progress in quantum computing isn’t only about hardware – better algorithms can suddenly make our classical assumptions much weaker. Cryptographers will be scrutinizing whether parameters for schemes like Kyber should be adjusted in light of these kinds of advances.
Q-Day impact: Marginal but not negligible. This attack is still exponential-time, so it doesn’t enable near-term decryption of lattice-encrypted data. However, any reduction in exponent is a meaningful shortening of the timeframe required for a quantum computer to crack cryptography. Today’s recommended lattice parameters stay secure, but if quantum algorithms keep improving (just as Craig Gidney’s 2025 paper slashed the qubit requirements for factoring RSA ), the “effective strength” of PQC can erode faster than expected. The takeaway: we must stay agile. Q-Day could arrive not just via new machines, but via smarter math. This latest speedup in lattice-cracking, while not a direct threat yet, underlines the importance of ongoing cryptanalysis and perhaps a healthy safety margin in our post-quantum standards.
My analysis: Quantum Sieving Breakthrough: Lattice Attack Exponent Slashed by 8%
Original paper: An Improved Quantum Algorithm for 3-Tuple Lattice Sieving
Ultrafast Squeezed Light Captures Quantum Uncertainty in Real Time
TL;DR: Scientists captured and controlled quantum uncertainty in real time using ultrafast squeezed light - watching noise shift between amplitude and phase on attosecond scales. It doesn’t speed up code-breaking, but it opens a new frontier in ultrafast quantum optics that could drive advances in quantum communication, sensing, and control.
Researchers demonstrated the first ultrafast squeezed-light pulses that let them measure and control quantum uncertainty on femto/attosecond timescales. Using a nonlinear optical setup (four-wave mixing in glass) and carefully phased laser pulses, they dynamically “dialed” noise between amplitude and phase - essentially watching the uncertainty ellipse evolve in real time - and even showed a petahertz-rate secure-communication demo based on the squeezed states.
Why it matters: Squeezed light has long improved precision sensing (e.g., LIGO), but doing it ultrafast turns a static quantum limit into a tunable resource. That opens a new lane - ultrafast quantum optics - with implications for high-bandwidth quantum comms, lower-noise metrology, and potentially faster quantum control techniques that piggyback on engineered quantum noise.
Q-Day impact: Not directly. But I still find it super interesting. This doesn’t make factoring or cryptanalysis faster. However, it could strengthen quantum communications and sensing ecosystems (and investment), indirectly accelerating quantum-tech maturity while reminding security teams that “quantum-secure” networking will also evolve quickly.
My analysis: Capturing Uncertainty
Original paper: Attosecond quantum uncertainty dynamics and ultrafast squeezed light for quantum communication
Policy & Readiness
Policymakers and standards bodies worldwide are stepping up quantum readiness efforts. In the U.S., California just enacted a law (Assembly Bill 940) to create the state’s first comprehensive quantum technology strategy by 2026 – making quantum tech a top economic priority and even committing $4 million to new quantum research funding.
Over in Europe, the telecom standards organization ETSI launched a new Quantum Technologies committee to develop standards for quantum communications and networks, supporting initiatives like the EuroQCI and Europe’s Quantum Act.
And the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre reopened its Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) pilot scheme, aiming to certify consulting firms that help businesses migrate to quantum-safe encryption – a move to ensure companies are prepared for large-scale PQC adoption.
Financial regulators are also gearing up for the quantum era. The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) published a research note examining where quantum computing could impact financial services first and how firms should prepare, framing 2025 as a critical moment to engage early with the technology while managing risks.
Similarly in Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) – alongside DBS, HSBC, OCBC and UOB banks – completed a pioneering trial of quantum key distribution in banking networks. The newly released technical report shows QKD can successfully secure data links between financial institutions, but also highlights integration challenges (like the need for interoperability standards and secure relay nodes) before such quantum-safe tech can be rolled out broadly.
Together, these policy moves underscore a global push to proactively prepare for the coming quantum age.
Quantum Flapdoodle of the Week
Welcome to a new (and probably endless) series where we explore the stranger corners of the “quantum” universe - the bold, the bizarre, and the beautifully implausible. Because when “quantum” becomes the seasoning sprinkled on every half-baked idea or a scam, someone needs to taste-test the soup.
This week’s specimen: Quantum Medbeds - a supposedly miraculous healing device powered by quantum entanglement, photon resonance, and, depending on the sales pitch, divine frequency alignment. The claim: it can diagnose, treat, and regenerate your body by “reprogramming cells through quantum vibration.” The reality: it’s pure science fiction, wrapped in technobabble and sold as salvation.
As I wrote, there’s no physics, no data, and no actual “quantum” - just the same old pseudoscientific promises with shinier buzzwords.
But here’s the silver lining: each new wave of quantum nonsense gives us another reason to sharpen our baloney detectors (see the Quantum Baloney Detection Toolkit) - and to laugh about it with tools like the Quantum Technobabble Generator. Because sometimes the best way to debunk quantum snake oil is simply to out-absurd it.
New on PostQuantum.com
There’s a new post on PostQuantum.com at least weekly - research, analysis, or practical guidance on quantum readiness. But this week I’d like to highlight something different: the new Getting Started With Quantum Readiness page.
It’s designed as a structured guide for anyone beginning a quantum-safe journey. The page organizes key articles and tools by phase - from executive briefings and cryptographic inventory to risk prioritization, migration planning, and long-term operations. Think of it as a living roadmap: a place to orient yourself, follow the right sequence, and return to as your program evolves. Even if you’ve already started, it’s worth a look - it connects all the moving parts of quantum readiness into one clear path forward.
The page: Getting Started With Quantum Readiness
From the PostQuantum.com Archive
This week I’m launching a new section, “Quantum Flapdoodle of the Week,” to spotlight the more… imaginative corners of the quantum world.
To set the stage, it’s worth revisiting the Quantum Baloney Detection Toolkit - my tongue-in-cheek but practical guide to spotting pseudoscience dressed in qubits.
And if you’d rather laugh than rage, try the Quantum Technobabble Generator, which churns out perfectly plausible-sounding nonsense for your amusement. Because while quantum hype isn’t going away anytime soon, a good sense of humor (and a sharp BS detector) keeps us all a little saner.
The article: Quantum Baloney Detection Toolkit
AI Nonsense Generator: Quantum Technobabble Generator
🎙 Applied Quantum’s The Quantum Minute wins “Best Podcast Series of 2025”
Big win: our micro-briefing, The Quantum Minute, was named Best Podcast Series of 2025 by Cybercrime Magazine’s awards program. For a quantum-focused show to top a cybersecurity media slate says a lot about where the industry’s attention is headed: quantum risk, readiness, and opportunity are now mainstream security topics - not niche science.
Why it matters: Recognition from a leading cyber outlet validates the editorial mission behind The Quantum Minute - fast, accurate signal on breakthroughs, policy, and PQC that security leaders can actually use. It also marks the growing convergence of quantum tech and enterprise security.
Read my thoughts about this on PostQuantum: The Quantum Minute Wins Best Podcast Series of 2025 – and What That Really Means for Cybersecurity
Catch up & subscribe: Quantum Minute On The Cybercrime Radio Podcast
That’s a wrap for another remarkable stretch in quantum tech - a week when Nobel committees, investors, researchers, and regulators all seemed to align on one message: quantum is real, relevant, and accelerating.
From foundational recognition in Stockholm to policy moves in California, from “hot” qubits in Michigan to corporate trials in New York and Singapore, the field is advancing faster and more coherently than ever before. And while hype will always trail behind progress (and occasionally lap it), it’s clear that quantum technology is no longer a future to anticipate - it’s a present to manage.
Stay curious, stay skeptical, and stay quantum-ready.